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Ranking, Recommendation, Survival, Uplift and Anomaly Metrics

Reference for ml-success-metric-selector · 95 lines

AI & Machine Learning / Classical Machine Learningv1.0.0Updated OCT 25 20264 references2 scripts

Ranking

DCG and NDCG@k

text
DCG@k  = Σ_{i=1..k} (2^{rel_i} − 1) / log2(i + 1)      # exponential gain (common in LTR)
IDCG@k = DCG@k of the ideal ordering
NDCG@k = DCG@k / IDCG@k                                  # per query, then averaged over queries

Queries with no relevant items have IDCG = 0: decide explicitly whether they count as 0, 1 or are excluded (LightGBM's lambdarank counts them as 1 by default). Linear gain rel_i instead of 2^{rel}-1 is the other convention: state which one you use.

MRR

Mean of 1 / rank of the first relevant item. Use when one right answer matters (navigational search, QA).

MAP@k

Mean over queries of average precision within the top k. Binary relevance.

Recall@k / hit rate@k

Share of relevant items (or of queries with at least one relevant item) appearing in the top k.

python
import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics import ndcg_score
ndcg_score([true_relevance_per_query], [scores_per_query], k=10)   # one query per row; pads must be equal length

Recommendation

MetricMeasuresCaveat
Recall@kfuture interactions retrieved in the listneeds a time-based holdout, not random
NDCG@kposition-aware retrievalgraded relevance from ratings or dwell time
Coverageshare of catalogue ever recommendedpopularity recommenders score low
Noveltymean −log2(popularity) of recommended itemstrades off with accuracy
Diversity1 − mean pairwise similarity in a listneeds item features
Popularity biasshare of recommendations from the headmonitor drift toward popular items

Offline gains in recall@k often do not transfer online; treat CTR/conversion/retention from an A/B test as the real success metric.

Survival

Concordance index

Share of comparable pairs (the earlier time is an observed event) where the model ranks risk correctly.

  • Harrell's C: biased under heavy censoring.
  • Uno's C: inverse-probability-of-censoring weighted; preferred when censoring is heavy or depends on time.
python
from lifelines.utils import concordance_index
concordance_index(durations, -risk_scores, events)       # higher risk -> shorter time, so negate
from sksurv.metrics import concordance_index_ipcw         # Uno's C

Time-dependent AUC and integrated Brier score

  • cumulative_dynamic_auc (scikit-survival) at the decision horizon (e.g. 90 days).
  • Integrated Brier score over [t_min, t_max]: calibration + discrimination of the survival curve.

Uplift

Uplift curve and Qini

Sort by predicted uplift; at each fraction φ of the population:

text
Qini(φ) = Y_T(φ) − Y_C(φ) · N_T(φ) / N_C(φ)          # incremental positives among the top φ
  • Qini coefficient: area between the Qini curve and the random-targeting line, normalised by the area for the ideal model.
  • AUUC: area under the uplift curve (conversion-rate difference version).
  • Uplift@K: (conversion_T − conversion_C) among the top K.

Valid only on randomised data (RCT or proper randomisation). See uplift-model-builder for code.

Anomaly detection

MetricWhen
Precision@k (k = alert budget)analysts review k alerts per day
Recall on known incidentsa catalogue of past incidents exists
Time to detectstreaming detection
Alert volume, alert fatiguealways a guardrail
PR-AUConce a labelled set exists

Clustering (diagnostics, not success)

MetricHigher is better?Notes
Silhouetteyes (−1..1)favours convex, similar-sized clusters
Calinski-Harabaszyessame bias
Davies-Bouldinno (lower)same bias
Adjusted Rand / NMI vs labelsyesonly with ground truth
Bootstrap stability (ARI between runs)yesthe most useful check

Success for clustering is that segments lead to different actions and remain stable over time.

More in Classical Machine Learning

anomaly-detection-model-builder

Build and evaluate anomaly detection for tabular, sensor and transaction data with few or no labels: define the anomaly type (point, contextual, collective), choose detectors (robust z-score/MAD and IQR rules, Mahalanobis with robust covariance, k-NN distance, LOF, Isolation Forest, one-class SVM, PCA reconstruction / autoencoders, forecasting residuals for time series), combine them by rank, explain each alert by its deviating features, set thresholds from an alert budget or the score distribution, and evaluate with precision@k, PR-AUC and recall on known incidents, or detector agreement when no labels exist. Includes pure-Python detectors (robust z, Mahalanobis, kNN, Isolation Forest, ensemble) and an evaluation script.

catboost-model-builder

Build CatBoost models that use its strengths correctly: raw categorical columns as cat_features (ordered target statistics, no manual encoding), text_features, Pool construction with NaN-safe categories, ordered boosting and has_time for temporal data, symmetric (oblivious) trees, overfitting detector with eval_set and use_best_model, losses for classification, regression (Quantile, Poisson, Tweedie) and ranking (YetiRank), class weights, monotone constraints, feature importance (PredictionValuesChange, LossFunctionChange) and SHAP values, GPU training and model export. Plans cat/text/numeric columns from a CSV and generates a runnable training script, and checks parameter sets for the conflicts CatBoost rejects (iterations vs n_estimators, Bayesian bootstrap with subsample, multiple class-weight options, depth > 16, use_best_model without eval_set).

categorical-encoding-selector

Choose and implement the right encoding for every categorical column given the model family and the data: one-hot (with infrequent-level grouping and handle_unknown), ordinal with an explicit order, cross-fitted target encoding (scikit-learn TargetEncoder, CatBoost ordered statistics, category_encoders inside CV), frequency/count encoding, feature hashing, native categorical support in LightGBM, HistGradientBoosting, XGBoost and CatBoost, prefix levels for codes (zip3, NAICS-2), and embeddings. Measures cardinality, rare-level share, unseen-level rate on a time-ordered holdout and target signal per column, emits the ColumnTransformer, and quantifies target-encoding leakage (in-sample vs out-of-fold vs holdout AUC).

classification-model-selector

Choose the right classification algorithm for tabular, text or mixed data and prove the choice with a fair bake-off: logistic regression (L2, L1, elastic net), linear SVM, naive Bayes, k-NN, RBF SVM, decision trees, random forest, extra trees, HistGradientBoosting, LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, explainable boosting machines (EBM/GAM), points scorecards and MLPs, matched to data size, width, categorical and high-cardinality share, missingness, class imbalance, text, and constraints such as interpretability, monotonic constraints, calibrated probabilities, latency budgets and tiny deployable models. Ranks candidates with starting hyperparameters and cautions, then generates a bake-off script running every candidate on identical CV folds with per-fold metrics, fit time and prediction latency.

clustering-algorithm-selector

Choose the right clustering algorithm and check that clustering makes sense at all: cluster tendency (Hopkins statistic with a correlated-features caveat, nearest-neighbour isolation), then k-means / MiniBatchKMeans, Gaussian mixtures with BIC, agglomerative (Ward, average, complete, single) with dendrograms, DBSCAN, HDBSCAN, OPTICS, spectral clustering, BIRCH, mean shift, k-prototypes and k-modes for mixed or categorical data, and Gower distance, matched to data size, expected shapes, noise, varying density, known k, soft memberships, hierarchy and streaming. Covers preprocessing (scaling, encoding, dimensionality, distance metrics), validation (internal indices, bootstrap stability, external labels, business profiling) and assigning new points.

collaborative-filtering-implementer

Implement collaborative filtering recommenders that beat popularity: item-based kNN with cosine, Jaccard or asymmetric similarity, shrinkage, neighbourhood size, positive-only or mean-centred rating signals and 'because you liked X' explanations; implicit ALS with confidence weighting, BPR pairwise ranking and the closed-form EASE model in plain NumPy, tuned on a temporal validation split by recall@k and NDCG@k and refit on all data; plus user-kNN, explicit matrix factorisation, the implicit/LightFM libraries, hyperparameter ranges, cold-start fallbacks, scaling with sparse matrices and approximate nearest neighbours. Produces top-k lists in the format of the recommendation evaluator.